Elon Musk’s statements about the Tesla Optimus robot are striking in their grandeur. He claimed that Optimus would bring $10 trillion in long-term profits for Tesla, making up 80% of Tesla’s value in the end, and increasing the company’s valuation to an impressive $25 trillion. However, past promises have not always materialized: Musk stated that Tesla would launch a pilot production line for Optimus and produce 5000 units by the end of 2025, which did not happen. In fact, Tesla recently announced a new “production-ready” third version of Optimus, hinting that the 2025 production-planned version was still not ready, with production set to start by the end of 2027 at the Fremont Tesla plant, where Model S and X were previously produced.
Perhaps these bold statements should be met with a dose of skepticism. During recent Tesla earnings calls, Musk mentioned something that not only underscored the gap between reality and promises but also raised questions about technology understanding. For months, Tesla claimed that two Optimus robots were working at their factories, the only evidence that Optimus could autonomously perform even the most basic tasks. The entire Optimus concept is built on convincing investors that it is more than just a remote-controlled animatronic robot. However, it appears that the information was not fully disclosed. During a recent earnings call, it was revealed that no Optimus robot is currently performing productive work at any Tesla factory. Musk stated that Optimus’ presence at the factory was “more for the robot to learn,” and it was not aiding in production. In other words, the robot whose production was planned to start last year is not even capable of assisting at Tesla’s own factories. Is it unable to perform even simple tasks like lifting a box of bolts and moving it? More importantly, why are the robots “learning” at the factory in the first place?
If you were surprised by this discovery, it is worth paying closer attention. Tesla has been desperately trying to create the illusion of Optimus’ autonomy but has faced repeated failures. Recall the incident in Miami where Tesla hinted that the water bottle-dispensing Optimus robots were doing so autonomously until one robot removed a non-existent headset, shattering the illusion. This clearly showed that the robot was being remotely controlled. While Tesla did not directly admit to this, the company confirmed that the demonstration video of Optimus folding clothes with a VR operator and the robots at the We Are Robot event were indeed being remote-controlled. Thus far, Optimus has not lived up to expectations as a technological demonstration. Therefore, it is not surprising that Tesla cannot get it to assist in its factories. The implications of this discovery go beyond what meets the eye.
For Tesla, it is uncomfortable that humanoid robots are already working in car manufacturing plants. BYD is currently testing the UBTech Walker S1 at its factories, where it handles tasks such as basic quality control, component transportation, and part installation. Walker S1 is potentially more capable than Optimus but still falls short of meeting Musk’s claims about Optimus. This showcases that Tesla is not truly leading the market and does not have a functional advantage over its competitors. Despite the trillion-dollar opportunity humanoid robots represent, companies like UBTech, not Tesla, are poised to benefit.
Humanoid robots are likely not a viable technology, let alone a revolutionary business opportunity. We have long known that humanoid robots only make sense in science fiction. There are very few instances in reality where a humanoid robot is more functional than a specialized one. Simple, inexpensive, specialized robots can install parts, transport components, and conduct quality checks faster, more precisely, and more economically than a humanoid robot ever could. The robotics industry has long been aware that humanoid robots are not the optimal direction.
In conclusion, Optimus appears to be an ambitious yet problematic project. The business aspects of humanoid robotics do not align with reality, and competitors are far ahead of Tesla in this arena. There seem to be issues with understanding AI and robotics, as evidenced by the significant gap between expectations and reality. It will be intriguing to observe how this situation unfolds in the coming years and how the technology progresses.
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